How long to lose 3, 5, 10 or 15 kg? The honest numbers

How long to lose 3 kg? How long to lose 15 kg? These are the questions people actually type into Google before they start, because a general answer like "it depends" does not help you plan a wedding, a trip or a doctor visit.

So this post does the maths for you, in kilos and weeks. If you want the bigger picture of what each phase feels like, read how long it actually takes to lose weight. This one is the planning chart.

The rate that works: 0.5 to 1 percent a week

A sustainable rate of fat loss for most people is about 0.5 to 1 percent of body weight per week. At 70 kg that is roughly 0.35 to 0.7 kg a week. At 90 kg, roughly 0.45 to 0.9 kg.

• •The lower end suits people with less to lose and anyone who wants to keep training hard.
• •The higher end is realistic when you have more to lose, especially in the first couple of months.
• •Faster than 1 percent a week for long usually costs muscle, energy and mood, and often ends in a rebound.

As you get lighter, the same percentage is a smaller number of kilos. That is why the last few kilos always feel slower. Nothing is broken.

The timeline, kilo by kilo

These are worked examples using that 0.5 to 1 percent range. They assume a steady calorie deficit most weeks, not perfection. Real life adds festivals, travel, illness and busy weeks, so plan on the longer end.

• •Lose 3 kg (starting at 70 kg): about 4 to 9 weeks. The scale often shows 1 to 2 kg in the first week or two, but much of that is water. Plan on 1 to 2 months for 3 kg of real fat loss.
• •Lose 5 kg (starting at 75 kg): about 7 to 14 weeks, so roughly 2 to 3.5 months.
• •Lose 10 kg (starting at 85 kg): about 13 to 25 weeks, so roughly 3 to 6 months.
• •Lose 15 kg (starting at 95 kg): about 17 to 34 weeks of actual dieting, so roughly 4 to 8 months.
• •Lose 20 kg (starting at 100 kg): about 22 to 45 weeks of actual dieting, so roughly 5 to 10 months.

How long to lose 15 kg or more

Big goals need a slightly different plan. For 15 kg or more, most people do better splitting it into blocks: about 8 to 12 weeks of dieting, then one to two weeks eating at maintenance, then another block. The breaks make the diet easier to stick to and give your mind and your training a rest. So a realistic plan for 15 kg is often 5 to 9 months on the calendar, and for 20 kg, closer to a year for many people. I explain how the breaks work in diet breaks and refeeds.

That may sound slow. But 15 kg over eight months that stays off is worth far more than 8 kg in two months that comes back by next year.

Why the scale does not move in a straight line

• •Week one is mostly water. When you eat fewer carbs and less salt, your body lets go of stored water. The first week can show 1 to 2 kg that is not fat.
• •Salt, late dinners and restaurant food can add a kilo overnight. It usually goes within a few days.
• •New exercise makes muscles hold water while they recover, so starting the gym can hide fat loss for a week or two.
• •Constipation, travel and poor sleep all shift the number.

This is why one morning means very little. Weigh yourself three to seven mornings a week, after the toilet and before food, and compare weekly averages. More in why your weight jumps overnight.

For women: your cycle changes the scale

Many women hold extra water in the days before their period, and it can hide a week or two of fat loss. Then the weight often drops suddenly once the period starts. Compare your weight with the same point in your last cycle, not with last week.

If you have PCOS or a thyroid condition, are postpartum, or are going through menopause, progress can be slower, but the same principles work. See the guides on PCOS, thyroid and menopause, and keep your doctor involved, especially if you take medicines. Never change a medicine dose to speed up weight loss.

How long to lose body fat you can actually see

The scale is only one number. Fat loss usually shows up elsewhere first. Most people notice their waist and clothes changing within about four to six weeks of steady effort, before the mirror shows much. A tape measure, photos every two weeks and your strength in the gym tell a clearer story than daily weight. Here is how to track fat loss without the scale.

What actually speeds it up

• •A steady calorie deficit you can keep on busy weeks, not a perfect one for three days.
• •Enough protein at every meal. A protein-first Indian breakfast is the easiest place to start.
• •Strength training to keep your muscle, plus daily steps. Here is how much cardio you actually need.
• •Around seven hours of sleep where your schedule allows it.

If you want your own timeline worked out from your weight, your schedule and your health, and adjusted every week based on real numbers, that is what coaching does.